Heads or Tails

Would you flip a coin to make a major life decision?

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In every life, there arise difficult decisions with potentially far-reaching consequences on lifetime utility: whether to quit a job, seek more education, end a relationship, quit smoking, start a diet, etc.

Steven D. Levitt, Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness.

Flipping a coin. That's a hell of a way to make a significant life decision.

While I didn't flip a coin, I did quit two jobs in my life by simply throwing caution to the wind. I didn't have any job prospects when I quit either job.

Some may consider those decisions to be reckless. In hindsight, I wouldn't consider either of those decisions the best in my life.

In the first instance, I was absolutely miserable with the job. I dreaded going to work every day. It wasn't a healthy way to live. When I quit, I went on to pursue higher education.

In the second instance, I was searching for a better work-life balance.

Quitting those jobs ultimately worked out for me. I have absolutely no regrets about either decision. However, in both cases, I should have made a more informed decision about whether or not to quit. I should have gathered the facts, weighed the options, created a plan for how I would follow through with my decision, and followed through with the decision using all available information.

Should I have flipped a coin in making either of those decisions to quit?

In the first instance, absolutely not. I would have rather done anything than worked another day of that job.

In the second instance, maybe. It wasn't a bad job. In retrospect, I could've expressed my concerns to my employer. I am confident we could have worked out a reasonable arrangement.

I recently read Mark Manson's The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck. I was struck by the quote:

"If you're miserable in your current situation, chances are it's because you feel like some part of it is outside your control—that there's a problem you have no ability to solve, a problem that was somehow thrust upon you without your choosing."

That's exactly how I felt in my current job when required to report to the office after working from home for eighteen months.

Manson continues:

"We don't always control what happens to us. But we always control how we interpret what happens to us, as well as how we respond."

When I was offered my current position, I accepted. I chose to be in my current job. I decided to remain in this job for over a decade. Like any form of employment, it has had positive and negative aspects.

The only reason I could work from home was because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The entire world was working from home.

Taking Manson's advice into consideration, if I choose to focus on the negative aspects of returning to the office, I lose all focus on the positives:

  • Working in New York City.

  • Collaborating with and learning from my colleagues.

  • The work-life balance I sought and gave up practicing law for.

  • The extended amount of time off from work I look forward to.

  • The financial means to explore what life has to offer.

I admit there are more positive aspects than negatives.

While I can't control my work environment, I can control my overall response: improving my personal finances.

Then I can retire when I am financially comfortable.

That is a decision I wholeheartedly take responsibility for.

What if you are absolutely miserable with your current job?

Would you flip a coin to determine whether to quit?

Check this out:

Steven Levitt, the co-author of Freakonomics, studied whether the flip of a coin can help a person make a significant life decision and if the person was happy once the decision was made based on the results. You can download a PDF of the study here.

Generally speaking, Levitt set up a website in which participants struggling to make a significant life decision made the decision by simply flipping a coin. The major life decisions ranged from quitting a job, proposing to a partner, divorcing/leaving a spouse or partner, moving (presumably to another city or state), or having a child.

For example, a participant deciding whether to quit a job would flip a coin. If the coin flip was "heads," the participant would leave the job. If the coin flip was tails, they would continue working.

Follow-up surveys were sent to both the participant and a third party for verification.

Over 20,000 participants flipped coins. The results were:

  • The outcome of the coin toss appeared to influence the actions taken.

  • Those who reported making a change, e.g., quitting a job, in follow-up surveys were substantially happier than those who did not make a change.

  • When it came to "important" decisions (e.g., quitting a job, separating from a husband or wife), making the change increased self-reported happiness, especially six months after the coin toss.

I am certainly not advocating anyone make a decision by simply flipping a coin.

I am advocating you take responsibility for your decisions which place you in your current position. As Manson eloquently puts it:

"The more we choose to accept responsibility in our lives, the more power we will exercise over our lives."

If you are questioning whether to make a significant life decision, then that is something you should seriously consider. Life is too short.

Control how you respond.

Make an informed decision.

Have a plan.

The odds are you will end up in a better place without having to flip a coin.

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